Talarico Leads Paxton in Recent Polls as Texas Senate Race Tightens to a Toss-Up

AUSTIN, Texas (TXAN 24) — The 2026 Texas U.S. Senate race is tightening, with Democratic nominee James Talarico holding recent polling leads over Republican nominee Ken Paxton while prediction markets continue to price the contest as essentially a toss-up.

A recent Texas Tribune poll found Talarico leading Paxton 45% to 40%, with 15% either supporting another candidate or undecided. Another recent Fox News poll showed Talarico with a narrower 3-point advantage.

The polling represents a significant shift from earlier expectations that Republicans would have a clearer advantage in the traditionally Republican state.

Talarico, a Democratic state representative, has built a campaign around his education background and a message aimed at suburban and independent voters. Paxton enters the general election as the Republican nominee after defeating longtime U.S. Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican runoff.

Prediction markets are giving voters a very different picture from the latest polling.

As of Tuesday, Aug. 11, Kalshi prices the race at approximately:

Ken Paxton — 51% chance to win

James Talarico — 49% chance to win

The market has moved dramatically toward Talarico compared with earlier in the campaign, when Paxton held a more substantial advantage.

The tight market reflects the uncertainty surrounding the race. Talarico's polling strength has made the contest competitive, but Texas' Republican lean and the state's recent statewide election history remain major factors.

With the election still months away, the Texas Senate contest is shaping up as one of the country's most closely watched races—and potentially one of the biggest opportunities for Democrats to compete in Texas in years.

Election Day is November 3, 2026.